“Is now a good time to buy?” is the most common question in Australian property — and one that no one can answer with certainty. What we can do is examine the current conditions, the factors that historically matter, and give you a framework for making a decision that’s right for your situation.
The Honest Answer
No one — not economists, not property commentators, not data platforms — can reliably predict short-term property market movements. What research consistently shows is that:
- Time in the market matters more than timing the market for the average owner-occupier with a long holding period
- Personal financial readiness (stable income, manageable deposit, comfortable repayments) is a more reliable predictor of success than market timing
- Market conditions are highly local — what applies to inner Sydney may be irrelevant in outer Brisbane or regional Western Australia
With that framing, here is the current picture as at April 2026.
Australian Property Market — Current Conditions (April 2026)
Interest rates
The RBA has cut the cash rate several times since the mid-2024 peak, reducing it to approximately 3.85% as at April 2026. Standard variable mortgage rates are approximately 5.75–6.25% for owner-occupiers.
The rate cut cycle has improved affordability modestly from the 2023 peak (when the cash rate was at 4.35% and standard variable rates were above 6.5%). Lower rates improve borrowing power and reduce monthly repayments.
Outlook: Further rate movement depends on inflation. If CPI continues to moderate, additional cuts are possible. If inflation reaccelerates, rates may pause or rise again. Markets and analysts are divided.
Property prices
| City | 12-month price change (approx., to April 2026) |
|---|---|
| Sydney | +3–5% |
| Melbourne | +1–3% (below other capitals) |
| Brisbane | +5–8% |
| Perth | +8–12% |
| Adelaide | +7–10% |
| Hobart | Flat to slight decline |
| Darwin | Flat |
| Canberra | +2–4% |
Estimates based on CoreLogic/ABS indices. These are approximate and subject to revision. Property markets move differently at suburb level.
Supply and demand
Australia’s housing supply shortage is well-documented. The federal government’s target of 1.2 million new homes over 5 years (National Housing Accord, commencing 2024) is not on track — construction activity remains constrained by labour and material costs.
Simultaneously, net overseas migration remains high (300,000–400,000 per year), supporting household formation and housing demand. The mismatch between supply and demand is a fundamental support for prices in the medium-to-long term.
Factors That Favour Buying in 2026
1. Rate cuts have begun. After the 2022–2023 rate hike cycle, the RBA has pivoted to cutting. Falling rates reduce mortgage costs and typically support property prices. Buyers who purchase during a rate-cutting cycle may benefit from improving affordability and price support.
2. Housing shortage persists. Without a meaningful acceleration in construction, the supply deficit is expected to persist for several years. This structural underpinning supports prices in well-located suburbs.
3. Borrowing power has partially recovered. From the 2023 trough (when rates peaked), lower assessment rates improve how much borrowers can qualify for. Each 0.25% cash rate cut adds approximately $15,000–$25,000 in borrowing power at typical income levels.
4. First home buyer support schemes remain available. The First Home Guarantee (5% deposit, no LMI) continues through FY2025–26 in all states. Government schemes are periodically reviewed — using them while available is a valid strategy.
Factors That Suggest Caution in 2026
1. Affordability is still historically stretched. Even after price moderation in some markets (particularly Melbourne), the ratio of house prices to household income remains at historically elevated levels. This limits potential for rapid further appreciation and means higher financial risk if rates rise.
2. Rate uncertainty. The RBA rate trajectory remains uncertain. If global inflation or domestic wage growth reaccelerates, rate cuts could stall or reverse. Buyers taking on large mortgages at current rates should stress-test their budget at 8–9% mortgage rates.
3. Melbourne has specific headwinds. Victoria’s state tax regime (higher stamp duty, land tax changes) and below-average price growth since 2022 reflect specific local pressures. Buyers in Melbourne should consider these carefully.
4. Some markets (Perth, Adelaide, Brisbane) have already run significantly. These cities have seen 50–70% price growth since 2020 and may be entering a period of consolidation. Buying in any city after a sustained run-up means accepting reduced upside potential in the short term.
A Framework for Your Decision
Rather than asking “is the market right to buy?” consider:
1. Can you comfortably service the loan?
Run your numbers through our borrowing power calculator and stress-test at a rate 2–3% above today’s level. If the repayment at 8–9% mortgage rate is unmanageable, you may be over-extended regardless of market conditions.
2. Do you have adequate deposit and buffer?
Ideally, have your deposit, buying costs (stamp duty, legal fees), and 3–6 months of mortgage repayments as a cash reserve before you buy.
3. Is your income stable?
Property is a long-term, illiquid investment. If your employment is volatile or your income may be disrupted in the next 1–3 years, this increases the risk of forced selling (which is when most property losses occur).
4. What is your time horizon?
If you’re planning to hold for 10+ years, timing matters less. Short holding periods amplify the transaction cost impact and increase exposure to short-term price fluctuations.
5. Does buying fit your life plan?
Will you be in the same city for 5–10 years? Do you want the stability and control of ownership? Non-financial factors are legitimate inputs to this decision.
Historical Context
Australian residential property has historically delivered long-run capital growth of approximately 5–7% per year nationally, with significant variation by location and cycle. Importantly:
- Property markets have experienced periods of significant decline (2017–2019 in Sydney and Melbourne; 2010–2012 nationally; 2022 across most markets)
- Recovery periods have historically followed declines
- Investors who were forced to sell during downturns realised losses; those who held typically recovered
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This applies to property as much as any other asset class.
FAQ
Will property prices go up or down in 2026?
No reliable forecast exists. Most economists and analysts expect modest national price growth of 2–5% in 2026, supported by rate cuts and housing supply constraints. However, specific markets, economic shocks, and policy changes can produce very different outcomes. Do not buy (or avoid buying) based on price predictions alone.
Should I wait for interest rates to fall further?
Waiting for further rate cuts carries two risks: (1) property prices may rise faster than the interest saving generated by waiting, and (2) rates may not fall as quickly as hoped. If your financial position is solid and you’ve found a suitable property at a price you can sustain, waiting specifically for further rate cuts may cost more than it saves. Model your specific scenario.
What does the Reserve Bank say about housing?
The RBA monitors housing market conditions as part of its financial stability mandate. Their current assessments are available at rba.gov.au. The RBA consistently notes that housing affordability remains a significant structural challenge for Australian households.
This article is general information only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. All market data is approximate and based on publicly available information at April 2026. Property markets are inherently unpredictable. For advice tailored to your situation, speak with a licensed financial adviser or mortgage broker. Find one through MoneySmart.